Some Last-Minute Oscar Nomination Predictions, Because I Like Procrastinating

WHAT!? Do you mean to tell me that the Oscar nominations will be announced in less than twelve hours, and I have yet to make any predictions!? That’s just ridiculous. Which is why I’m writing this now. After a stunning job predicting the Golden Globes (if I do say so myself – 15 correct wins out of 19 predicted categories!), I feel pretty confident about the films and actors I am predicting will be announced by Jennifer Lawrence and Tom Sherak bright and early on Tuesday. Please keep in mind that this by no means reflects what films or actors I consider to have been the best of 2011. I’m still working on that list, but expect to read it soon. Read ahead to hear my predictions in Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. And keep your fingers crossed for Melissa McCarthy!

Best Picture:

The Academy has YET AGAIN redone the rules on Best Picture voting this year, meaning that between 5 and 10 films can be nominated. The five that I consider the most likely nominees are first, with the asterisked films easily making the Top 10 for the Academy. The field truly is wide open this year, at least where nominations are concerned, so it’s anyone’s guess as to how many films will actually get nominated. I’m predicting eight, which would probably knock off “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” and “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” Yes, that’s right: I’ve got my money on a surprise “Bridesmaids” nomination.

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
*War Horse
*The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
*Bridesmaids
*Moneyball
*Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Possible spoilers: “The Tree of Life”; “The Ides of March”; “Drive”

Best Director:

I won’t claim to know a lot about the technicalities behind what differentiates a good director from a great director, but I do know which directors crafted some captivating films this year. I’m going for those that drew me in with their cinematographic and editorial skills, and insightful, original plots, NOT over-arching, bash-you-over-the-head messages and rehashes. Again, some of these spots are locks, but the field truly is wide-open.

Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
David Fincher, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Possible spoilers: George Clooney; Nicolas Winding Refn; Terrence Malick; Steven Spielberg; Tate Taylor

Best Actor:

In a year of very, very strong A-list and newbie performances, the list here is short. Consider Clooney, Pitt, and Dujardin locks. The other two spots are debatable – Oldman was mostly ignored until the BAFTA nominations, while Fassbender has been gaining a lot of positive press for a film that received at best mixed reviews (as has DiCaprio). Could Gosling pull off an upset after his amazing year, or someone else for that matter?

George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Possible spoilers: Ryan Gosling; Gary Oldman; Michael Shannon

Best Actress:

This race might be tied up nicely between Davis and Streep, but like Best Actor, there are only three locked nominations (the former and Williams). Consider the other two slots up for grabs. I’m picking Mara because I think she deserves it, and Close because she is quickly becoming the Susan Lucci of the Oscars, but never, NEVER count out the spoilers in this race. They all merit nominations.

Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”

Possible spoilers: Tilda Swinton; Elizabeth Olsen; Charlize Theron; Kirsten Dunst

Best Supporting Actor:

This race seems pretty well locked down, with Kingsley being the only one up for debate. Anyone could take that fifth spot, but it doesn’t really matter in Plummer’s race to lose.

Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
Albert Brooks, “Drive”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Ben Kingsley, “Hugo”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Possible spoilers: Patton Oswalt; Max von Sydow; Nick Nolte

Best Supporting Actress:

This is possibly my favorite category this year, given the breadth of performances that seem destined to be nominated. McCarthy is my horse in this race, but it’s Spencer’s to lose. Honestly, Spencer is probably the only locked nomination.

Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help” (or “The Tree of Life,” or “Take Shelter,” but I’m predicting “The Help”)
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

Possible spoilers: Janet McTeer

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